Identify likely recompetes from budget data

Government contract spending data can be used to identify which projects are most likely to have early recompetes and, sometimes, how well the incumbent contractors are performing.

In this example, an Information Technology services contract could expire in 3 years or sooner. As shown here, If the contract has reported an amount close to the spending ceiling it might end early and not be recompeted.

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Or, if, as shown here, the reported spending is on track, then the contract will most likely run its full term unless the incumbent contractor is performing poorly or the project is hit with unexpected budget cuts.

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Finally, if the reported spending is well below the budget baseline or expected spending, then the contractor may be in trouble or the program may be in jeopardy or a target for restructure or early recompete.

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This chart, based on actual data from a major contract vehicle, is even more illuminating as it shows spending by company for each year and each generation of a multi-award contract.

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The ebb and flow of spending over the life of a contract tells a story. Is spending consistent and likely to have a follow-on contract of similar value and scope. Is there a significant incline or decline in spending over the years? And, how has each company fared over the contract duration? All of this information may affect your follow-on capture strategy.

Let’s take a quick look at how well each company performed.

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Company A held this contract as a single award for ten years until it was recompeted as a multi-award contract in 2007. However, Company B and C slowly took away the tasking over the next four years and then Company A was not awarded a contract on the next re-compete in 2011. On one hand, Company A might be an excellent teammate on the next recompete since they know so much about the contract vehicle. However, they may have swallowed a poison pill due to poor past performance or they may have suffered from an inability to compete in the increasingly cost competitive environment.

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After doing fairly well, Company B also didn’t win a follow-on contract in 2011. Other than being yellow, it’s not clear why they didn’t win their recompete.

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Company C has continued its momentum into the recompete and 2012 tasking. They will be the most likely winner on the next recompete and would be the team to join if there is an opening.

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Let’s suppose that Company D won a contract in 2011 in large part due to hiring away Company A’s well liked project manager who was frustrated with a lack of internal corporate support.

– Mike Lisagor and Kathleen Sievers, DELTEK

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